Gold and Molybdenum (601958): Molybdenum prices surged and performance increased significantly

Gold and Molybdenum (601958): Molybdenum prices surged and performance increased significantly
The company’s attributable net profit in 2018 increased by 256% every year. The company achieved operating income of 87 in 2018.78 ppm, a reduction of 13 per year.99%; net profit attributable to mother 3.810,000 yuan, an annual increase of 256%, expected average ROE is 2.96%, an increase of 2 every year.12 averages.Among them, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 22.96 ‰, an increase of 10 per year.67%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.39%; net profit attributable to mother 1.54 ppm, an increase of 123% per year and an increase of 97 from the previous month.44%. Due to the high rise in molybdenum prices, the company’s performance was higher than our expectations.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-21 to be zero.13/0.17/0.19 yuan to maintain the overweight level. The molybdenum price surged in the fourth quarter, and the performance increased significantly.The average price of Henan molybdenum concentrate in 2018 was 1,725 yuan / ton, surpassing the increase of 42.2%; the average price of molybdenum oxide is 1827 yuan / ton degree, an increase of 39 per year.6%; Molybdenum price is 12.01 million / ton, an increase of 39 per year.2%.The company’s primary molybdenum product gross margin reached 35.71%, an increase of 12 per year.80 units.Especially in the fourth quarter, the average prices of molybdenum concentrate, molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum were 1925 yuan / ton, 2027 yuan / ton, respectively.210,000 yuan / ton, continued to rise 9 in the third quarter.1%, 8.2%, 4.8%, so the company’s gross profit in the fourth quarter reached 6.1.5 billion, an increase of 54.5%.In addition, the company’s fourth quarter management expenses were only zero.43 trillion, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.850,000 yuan, the above factors comprehensive strength company fourth-quarter performance was better than expected. The company’s production and sales have increased. In 19 years, the supply and demand pattern of molybdenum may be tightened. In addition to price increases, the company’s increase in production and sales has also increased its performance.The company’s molybdenum concentrate output in 2018 was 4.74 Initially, it is increased by 4 per year.68%; sales are 5.21 Initially, it increases by 13 every year.twenty one%. The company’s Jinduicheng molybdenum ore and Ruyang Donggou molybdenum ore produce 1372 and 711 ore, respectively, with grades of 0.08% and 0.12%.The company plans to produce molybdenum concentrates in 20194.8 nominal.The International Molybdenum Association forecasts that the annual demand for molybdenum in 2019 will reach 9.5 samples, the growth rate reached 6.Due to the restrictions of environmental protection policies, the growth of molybdenum supply may be limited, and the growth rate is in the range of 2% -5%.The International Molybdenum Association expects that the balance between molybdenum supply and demand will tighten and that the price center will continue to rise. Continue to extend the downstream of the product, and the added value is expected to improve the company’s breakthrough in improving product added value during the year.The company’s new product market has achieved remarkable results. The new six-generation target has obtained customer certification 天津夜网 and achieved batch supply. It has reached cooperation with the world’s largest organic molybdenum producer.In terms of research and development, the company reached a strategic cooperation with Xi’an Jiaotong University to jointly build a research center for the preparation of refractory metal pipes and special-shaped parts; the company’s nuclear-grade thin-walled molybdenum alloy pipe project entered the second stage of research and development.The added value of the company’s products is expected to further increase in the future. The PB estimate is low, and we maintain our overweight rating. We maintain our assumptions on relative prices, company product output, and costs. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019-21 will be zero.13/0.17/0.19 yuan, 19-20 forecast remains unchanged from last time.The company’s BVPS is 武汉夜网论坛 expected to be 4 in 19 years.17 yuan.Refer to comparable company’s 19 year Wind consensus expectations 2.41 times the PB estimate, and the company has averaged 2 since 13 past.03 times the PB estimate, we conservatively give the company 19 years 2.0-2.2 PB, corresponding to the expected target interval of 8.34-9.17 yuan to maintain the overweight level. Risk warning: the price of molybdenum falls; the company’s product output falls short of expectations; the demand for molybdenum falls short of expectations.